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Nigeria FX Rules Backed by Woman Who May Be Finance Minister

Kemi Adeosun, tipped by some analysts to be the next Nigerian finance minister, said a currency devaluation on its own won’t solve the nation’s economic problems and she supports the central bank’s foreign-exchange restrictions.

“What the Central Bank of Nigeria governor has done is brought in some breathing space because if we allowed the market to continue, all our reserves would have been depleted,” Adeosun, 48, told lawmakers during her Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday.

President Muhammadu Buhari nominated Adeosun, a former investment banker and London-trained accountant, as a cabinet minister, without disclosing what portfolio she may lead. Analysts including Bismarck Rewane of the Financial Derivatives Co. in Lagos, and Manji Cheto, vice president of risk adviser Teneo Intelligence in London, said she may be finance minister, given her position as finance commissioner of Ogun state in the south-west of Nigeria for the past four years.

Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele has resisted pressure from investors and fellow policy makers to devalue the naira despite a plunge in oil revenue, introducing foreign-exchange controls instead to stabilize the currency. The naira has averaged 198.99 per dollar since the restrictions were imposed in February.

“There are pros and cons around devaluation,” Adeosun said. “Adjusting the foreign exchange rate on its own in isolation will not solve our problems.”

Second Candidate

Buhari’s finance minister will need to restore confidence in Africa’s biggest economy in the face of lower oil prices, slowing economic growth and attacks by Boko Haram militants.

The economy of Africa’s biggest oil producer grew at its slowest pace this decade at 2.4 percent in the second quarter from a year ago, as falling income from crude exports and foreign-exchange shortages hit businesses.

Buhari named Okechukwu Enelamah on a second list of cabinet nominees this week, a private equity investor who also stands a chance of being finance minister, according to Lagos-based ARM Investment Managers. He is founder and chief executive officer of African Capital Alliance, which was formed in 1997 and has raised more than $750 million in finance for investments in industries from technology and financial services to oil and gas.

Enelamah, who has an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, previously worked at Goldman Sachs Group in New York and Arthur Andersen LLP in Nigeria, according to the website of African Capital Alliance.

Lower Rates

Adeosun, whose nomination was approved by the Senate on Wednesday, has degrees in economics and public financial management from universities in London, according to her LinkedIn profile. She worked for PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in London and at Chapel Hill Denham Ltd., a Nigerian investment bank, before becoming finance commissioner of Ogun state in 2011. It has the seventh smallest economy of Nigeria’s 36 states, according to Renaissance Capital.

Adeosun added that she’s in favor of lower interest rates and reducing the government’s spending on salaries and overheads from 78 percent of the budget. The government must increase revenue, spend it better and seek other sources of funding, she said.

“What we need to do is strategize and the solution will not just be exchange rate,” she said. “The exchange rate is not the silver bullet, it’s not the wonder drug. It has to be accompanied with fiscal policies and monetary policies and industrial policies.”

$50 Oil for 15 Years Isn't What Scares Bank of Russia Governor

Will Russia Cut Rates as Inflation Slows?

  • Slow pace of economic overhaul is bigger worry for Nabiullina
  • Russia remains hamstrung by corruption, weak institutions

Fifteen years of oil at $50 a barrel isn’t the worst nightmare for Russian central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina.

“What worries me more is the pace of reforms in the economy that could stimulate private investment,” Nabiullina, 51, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Tuesday. “What’s very important is a whole set of conditions to make Russia more attractive to private investments. And what’s worrisome is the pace of such changes.”

Elvira Nabiullina
Elvira Nabiullina
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

It’s a shot across the bow to President Vladimir Putin, who’s faced growing pressure from inside and outside the government for new measures to pull the world’s largest energy exporter out of its first recession in six years. While Russia has adjusted to the collapse in oil prices by allowing the ruble to lose almost half its value since January 2014 and letting consumer demand bear the brunt of the downturn, its economy remains hamstrung by corruption and inefficiencies.

Russia ranks alongside Nigeria and Kyrgyzstan at 136th, out of 174 countries, in Transparency International’s 2014 ranking of perceived levels of corruption, down from 82nd in 2000, a year after Putin came to power. Its property rights rank 120th and the level of judicial independence 109th of 144 nations in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Report.

Investment Crash

While compounded by U.S. and European sanctions and turmoil on commodities markets, the slump in Russian investment predates the standoff over Ukraine. It’s now reached 20 months, the longest stretch of declines since at least 1995, when Bloomberg started compiling the figures. September data set to be released next week will show capital spending fell 7.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The central bank forecasts the economy won’t return to annual growth until 2017, meaning Russia is on track for the longest recession in two decades. Gross domestic product will contract 3.9 percent to 4.4 percent this year and may shrink as much as 1 percent next year, according to a Bank of Russia forecast that projects oil staying at $50 in 2016-2018.

Putin’s Backing

While Putin scolded the central bank last year for not reacting more quickly to the currency crisis, he’s since rarely wavered in his support for Nabiullina, including her switch to a free-floating exchange rate last November. The policy shift was “correct and timely” despite “some negative consequences” for the economy and households, Putin said Tuesday at a conference organized by VTB Capital in Moscow.

The Bank of Russia said Wednesday that it won’t “artificially restrain the ruble rate,” responding to a report in the Financial Times that the government is discussing limits on how much the currency may strengthen against the dollar to ease the country’s economic dependence on commodities.

What Russia needs is a growth model based on crude prices that “aren’t very high,” according to Nabiullina, a former economy minister in Putin’s cabinet. The government, which relies on oil and gas for almost half of its revenue, is drafting next year’s budget by assuming an average oil price of $50 a barrel.

“The main thing for us now is to learn to live under the conditions of relatively low prices for oil,” Nabiullina said. “That’s the reality for which we must be mentally ready. The financial sector is ready for the reality that forced an adjustment in the balance of payments. Now the economy is adjusting to this reality”

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