Nigeria averaged a crude oil production output of 1.468mbpd in the first quarter of 2025, much lower than the 2mbpd target set by the government.
This is according to information in OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Report for May 2025, published on the website of the oil cartel.
According to OPEC, global oil demand in 2025 is expected to grow by 1.3mbpd, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
Nigeria’s numbers
According to OPEC, Nigeria reported a total of 1.468mbpd in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 1.435mbpd recorded in the 4th quarter of 2024.
- In terms of individual months, February, March, and April recorded 1.465, 1.401, and 1.486 million barrels per day, respectively.
- This all falls significantly short of the country’s target of 2.0mbpd based on the 2025 budget.
- In terms of total Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) output, OPEC countries averaged 40.92mbpd in April 2025, which is 106tbpd higher compared to March 2025.
The OPEC Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is an agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, including Russia, to coordinate oil output and stabilize global oil markets.
According to the report, Nigeria reported an average crude oil output of 1.521mbpd for the first quarter of 2025. Reported output for February, March, and April 2025 was 1.540, 1.499, and 1.471, respectively.
Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s largest crude oil exporter, per the OPEC data.
Export to OECD
According to the report, Nigeria’s exports to OECD countries declined as imports from the US increased.
- “Preliminary estimates for April show OECD Europe crude imports declining, m-o-m, amid lower flows from Russia to Turkey, as well as from Nigeria and Canada, which offset an increase in imports of US crude. Product imports into the region remained steady, m-o-m, with gains across all major products, except LPG.”
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s crude oil exports to the US increased along with those of Mexico despite a decline in imports by the world’s largest economy.
- “US crude imports averaged 5.8mbpd in April, according to estimates based on preliminary data. This represents a decline of 134tbpd, or about 2%, m-o-m. According to preliminary EIA weekly data, lower flows were seen from Canada, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, partly offset by increases in Nigeria and Mexico. Compared with the same month last year, crude imports were down by 803tbpd, or 12%.”
What you should know
Data from the Ministry of Finance stated that Nigeria achieved crude oil production of 1.737 and 1.672mbpd for the months of January and February 2025 respectively. The figures include condensates.
- Nigeria also targeted an oil revenue of N21 trillion per the 2025 Budget, about 50% of the total N40.9 trillion in FG retained revenues targeted for the year.
- Total budget expenditure is N54.9 trillion, leading to a record fiscal deficit of N14.1 trillion.
Brent crude oil prices have fallen since May, dropping to below $60 per barrel. However, it has risen to above $65 per barrel as the trade war between the US and China eases.
