Is Guinness Share Price Experiencing a Melt Down?


Guinness

Guinness closed trading today at N168 losing 5% of its closing price, Tuesday of N173.5. This lowest the stock has traded since March 14, 2014 (this is a stock that was N297 July last year). Incidentally, this was the period when we bought the stock (we have since sold it). The share price has been dropping after it reported 19% drop in profit after tax. Currently, we value this stock at about N120 max and will consider repurchasing the stock if it falls below that price. Last year, we wrote about the share price and believed it was in bubble territory.

This might not necessarily be a melt down but when you consider that this stock was N297 just over a year ago it appears like a slow and steady melt down. In technical terms the stock is currently trading at an RSI of about 26 (RSI below 30 suggest a stock is over sold) and may start to rise again. However, I believe it is still over valued and their Q1 result expected in October will have a lot to say about this value.

Here is how the stock has traded in the last one week;

Share Trading History (Previous 10 trading days)
Date Open High Low Close Chg % Chg Vol Value Deals
10 Sep, 2014 174.00 174.00 173.00 173.50 -0.02 -0.01 391,540 67,864,230.00 N/A
09 Sep, 2014 180.50 173.52 173.50 173.52 -2.28 -1.30 172,310 29,927,900.00 N/A
08 Sep, 2014 178.00 178.00 173.12 175.80 -5.20 -2.87 309,056 54,073,950.00 N/A
05 Sep, 2014 180.20 181.00 180.00 181.00 +0.00 +0.00 279,800 50,407,950.00 N/A
04 Sep, 2014 181.00 181.00 181.00 181.00 -3.94 -2.13 362,091 65,574,500.00 N/A
03 Sep, 2014 183.67 185.00 183.67 184.94 +4.44 +2.46 164,387 30,277,030.00 N/A
02 Sep, 2014 180.02 181.01 180.00 180.50 +0.50 +0.28 603,419 108,764,400.00 N/A
01 Sep, 2014 182.15 182.15 180.00 180.00 -5.00 -2.70 154,203 27,959,010.00 N/A
29 Aug, 2014 183.00 185.00 183.00 185.00 +0.00 +0.00 196,745 36,191,000.00 N/A
28 Aug, 2014 183.00 185.00 183.00 185.00 +0.00 +0.00 196,745 36,191,000.00 N/A

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