Buhari was elected president in 2015 by a broad coalition of interests. Capitalists, socialists, unitarists and regionalists all united to ensure that he won the elections.
By all accounts, it appears that the regionalists and capitalists are unhappy with his performance to date. They seem to imply that he deceived them either actively or passively by playing along with their plans. They claim they were led to believe that he would place the private sector at the heart of his governance strategy but his actions to date have been a betrayal of that promise.
As 2019 approaches, how can the ‘free marketers’ ensure that they won’t be deceived by another ‘socialist’ masquerading as a capitalist?
I think the answer to the question requires us to apply ourselves more rigorously to the manner in which we select candidates.
In the US and UK, the candidates present manifestos but there is also an implicit understanding that elections go beyond the manifesto. A critical analysis of the candidates’ personality must also take place.
Their reasoning is simple. Circumstances change so it is possible that a manifesto becomes redundant but what won’t change is the person who is in charge of government. For example, a manifesto might have promised that Sunday Oliseh would be sacked as Nigeria’s coach but the promise would be redundant because he resigned.
That is why analysts in advanced democracies go beyond manifesto promises. They seek to understand a candidate’s ideology, his decision making processes and his character. They are the things that will determine how he reacts to unforeseen events when he gets into office.
For example, David Cameron is a capitalist by ideology and Jeremy Corbyn is a socialist by ideology. So it’s logical to assume that if confronted with the fuel subsidy problem, Cameron would have opted to remove the subsidy whilst Corbyn would have insisted on retaining them.
In the Nigerian case, these issues are more critical because the President is so powerful that no godfather can control him. Therefore once he moves into Aso Rock, his decisions will be a reflection of his core principles. This is why it was no surprise that Buhari balked at the decision to float the Naira. It went against his core principle, socialism.
So in 2019, it will not be enough to say, Elrufai promised X or Atiku promised Y. We must ask ourselves, what would Elrufai or Atiku instinctively do when confronted with a crisis? Are they democrats by instinct? Are they diplomats by instinct? Are they capitalists by instinct? Are they compassionate by instinct?
In summary, i think the 2015 error was the failure of capitalists to consider the personality and ideology of Buhari before they chose to support him. It will never be enough to read and analyse manifestos. We must always delve into the personalities of candidates and understand the core of their ideologies and characters.
A good idea towards selecting candidates but I don’t think people were not aware of who Buhari is. The bigger issue was if Nigerians wanted to continue with GEJ and the PDP approach to governance
This analysis is totally wrong.first you must understand president Buhari first.there is no covert conspiration to elect president Buhari by any group,capitalist,regionlist,socialist,unitarian as you called,since our independence,the nation wanted a change,chief awolowo would have won as leader of the opposition is the process of democratis system,if it was continued ,Chief awolowo a quite intelligent and a well read man.he would have made a good Nigerian prime minister or president,as Mr ojukwu said,” Mr Awolowo is the best Nigerian president,we never have” when,the army enter into Nigerian politics thing changed thing,but not for the best.
In the 2nd republic,president Shagari,a former school teacher,a weak president,who said he only wanted to be a senator,they lost next election and they rigged the election,in the 3rd republic.most Nigerian wanted chief obasanjo to succeed,all tribes wanted him to win,sorely for the unity of Nigeria,Dr Ekwueme was the leader of those politician,who would have not fled the nation,due to the burutality of Gen Abacha regime,that are still opposed to military regime,cardinal okogie joined them to opposes military regime,and you have yar’adua group.gen yar’dua a man with charisma,in his group,you find Atiku in his group,he would have made a Nigerian president in future.gen Babangida banned some old politician from contesting the Nigerian president,that lead to abiola winning the contested presidential postion.
Without obsanjo,nigeria will still burn,they wanted him to win,due to injustice in Nigeria,Gen yar’adua a faithfully,and loyal deputy to Obasanjo.with the banning of yar’adua out of contest,inspite of what obasanjo public utterances that Abiola is not our messiah,he asked yar’adua to support Abiola,yar’adua said “I will support Abiola,but I will not put my Money in this”
So after obasanjo coming out of prison,they came to him,,after asking him to contest the presidential election,obasanjo decided to leave the country,and he told them ” how many head of state are you going to make me”.He saw reason,and those politican banded together to form the PDP,and ekwueme gave way,all opposition are very weak or small,to be any force,and the real opposition was the Alliance of Democracy,which was located in the south west,they captured all south west state,lagos being a min-Nigeria,was able to act independently of alliance of democracy,within a few election,and within a few years alliance of democracy was almost wiped-out.The pdp was not performing.a new party was formed through joining together of small parties,some pdp governor jumped out of the sinking boat of pdp,maybe into the ocean of the new apc,
Nobody expected president Buhari to win,as the pdp was very,very strong, MEANS THAT NIGERIA IS UNDERGOING. A RAPID CHANGES,SOCIALLY,ECONOMICALLY,SPIRITUALLY,this recession hasten the process of changes,it will weed out,if the present govt intervene economically and socially,it will slow dowm the changes,and bring-up the synergy toward a new Nigeria,a new Africa,it is the end of an era,and installing a new era globally.May god Bless Nigeria.